000 jobs have been created in July after 368

After a 1,2835 dollar at the meeting point, the euro moved again on 1,2777 yesterday late in the day, against 1,2817 the previous day. Of course, stakeholders expect that the European Central Bank (ECB) keep the step, this afternoon, at the Australian Institute of emission. He conducted yesterday a new raising its interest rates by 25 points base, 6, in a desire to contain inflationary pressures in a dynamic activity. But the movement is already integrated by the market with regard to the euro area.

In view of the recent statements of the members of the ECB, the market expects an acceleration in the movement, scope or timing. No doubt, in this context, that the communication of Jean-Claude Trichet will be peeled. The risk is that the central banker does not confirm the expectations of the market. On the eve of the meeting of the ECB, currency traders have not wished to make new bets on the Exchange. According to the current level of 3-month Euribor futures contracts, stakeholders attribute to the assumption of 3.5 year refinancing rate 68 probability. Which would mean that the ECB could still proceed with two movements by the end of the year, after the rise of 25 basis points to 3, expected today.

Questions about the BoJ

Published yesterday morning, the price index in production for the eurozone for the month of June reflects an increase of 5.8 on an annual basis, compared to 5.7 advance. And inflationary fears appear not to dry up so early, because the price of oil will buckle again. In fear of tropical storm Chris, in the direction of the Mexico Gulf, turn into a hurricane, a barrel of brent was approaching dangerously 77,50 dollars yesterday afternoon, some cables from the record set 78,18 $ mid-July.

The Bank of the Japan (BoJ) is preparing the land for the next movement. Yesterday, a member of the monetary policy Committee, Atsushi Mizuno, held to disabuse the followers of the status quo by the end of the year. "What concerns me, it is that when the Bank says it will slowly adjust interest rates, there is a risk that one understands wrongly that there be no new rate hike this year," he said. "If the rising risk materializes on the side of inflation, will maintain negative real interest rates be dangerous", he continued before specifying that the BoJ was likely to raise its growth forecasts for 2007.

Tuesday, the Governor of the BoJ, Toshihiko Fukui, went in this direction. "When I have indicated, on July 14, that we were not planning a movement of consecutive rate hike, I wanted to say that it should not be an anticipation of movements at regular intervals," he said in an interview with the Japanese news agency Jiji. "If now you ask me if there will be no increase in rates by the end of the year, the truth is that we have not said this."

These statements added to the Chinese agency Xinhua information according to which the People Bank of China (Central Bank) may enhance the flexibility of the yuan was likely to support the yen. Is that still, the prospect of a report on the employment and the meeting of the Federal Reserve Tuesday has placed players in the expectation and parities in ranges of narrow fluctuations. The dollar exchanged in the evening at 114,60 yen, against 114,68 Tuesday evening.

Yesterday the figures ADP employment opportunities for the private sector in the United States proved disappointing. In total, 99.000 jobs have been created in July after 368.000 in June. Economists projected 155.000 units.

Société Générale, the dollar should have difficulty to identify a clear trend before the Fed next Tuesday. The top of the range 1, 27-1, 2860 should thus continue to contain parity entering in the coming days. "It will take a very strong us employment report tomorrow or a new higher rates Americans Tuesday to bring parity entering to the bottom of the range", predicted the institution Exchange team. "However, a disappointing employment report and the status quo in the Committee on monetary policy Tuesday would permanently settlers parity above this range, move beyond 1.29 dollar."