Thirty years later it is still less than 25

One or three millions of demonstrators against the pension reform How much for those of tomorrow and the 12 October In our national theatre, the number is, politically. It reflects the deleterious climate and by effect back, does arranges it not. Economically, the protests have little. Extend the duration of the work is inevitable. And "the other reform" touted by the Socialist Party would not in fact the presentation. The events that really matter to determine our future living standards, we French, took place in Bangladesh, where the workers of some textile firms received an increase of 80 of their salairesen last August, after protests against food price increases, of oil, health.

Almost all other Asian countries have similar claims. The Viet Nam had 200 events last year because of a greater than 20 percent inflation. In Indonesia, parades have multiplied, for example in Bandung until 40,000 people against the price of electricity. Workers received the regional minimum wages, a 10 gain bearings, $ 100 per month in the capital Jakarta. In India also, movements against price increases have affected Nokia, Bosch, Hyundai and Volvo plants. China is concerned. Information on with protests, shortages of labour, wage increases agreed all summer. New labour laws have been implemented, minima were recorded by 30 in some cities.

These conflicts lead to better wages and higher levels of life in emerging countries. They are essential for Bengali and Indian workers first Chief. But for those of Paris, which should encourage emerging comrades. Their interests are the same. More upgrading of Asia will be fast, faster wages to conduct, soon will cease the competition by the costs and faster forces wage-profit report can balance again, this time across the entire planet. The pressure on labour costs in the West would cease only when Asia "in catch-up" has ceased to exercise.

When this happens Response difficult. It took forty years to the Japan. The level of life of the Japanese, half lower from that of the Americans after the war, it was "caught" around 1990, before the US resumed their distance. The Korea of the South is part of later: 10 of the standard of living American post-war, 65 today. This is sufficient for one class over the Korea among the countries "to low labour costs. China began its catch-up in 1978, following the reforms of Deng Xiaoping. The empire was very low: less than 5 of the U.S. level. Thirty years later, it is still less than 25. How long will take again

A first review of the Chinese employment market is not in the euphoria. The average salary of a peasant that migrate from the campaign for emerging cities is still 1,500 dollars a year, ten times less than in France, according to Fan Gang of Peking University (1). But agriculture, where wages are half lower, still represents 30 of the workforce. Clearly, "the army of reserve" is still wide: at least 150 million people! Need to create 8 million jobs per year for twenty years to absorb. It's a lot and whatever happens during this time, China will be under internal pressure on his wages. For fifteen years, their increase was also limited to 4-6 per year, two times less rapidly than GDP. At the time, the share of wages in national wealth declined and the consumption also. China increases its investment in factories for export. It can be concluded that the war cost will not end tomorrow.

Yet, there is hope that the pace of upgrading is accelerating. Because of the protests, first. Then, because China has understood that American and European markets dry up. Domestic consumption should take up the slack. This imposes a payroll adjustment. This summer protests were supported by the central Government for a new model of growth. Therefore, the catch-up could be completed in, say, twenty years. It is long Yes and no. Children born today will not know the Chinese competition by the costs. Events, there will be paid.