These days the reasoning of Jim Rogers made fly

Who is right between Nouriel Roubini and Jim Rogers The debate about the enthusiasm of investors for the derivatives of raw ignites. Two extreme positions are opposed. On the one hand, that of Nouriel Roubini, Professor of New York who was able to predict the financial crisis. On the other hand, that of Jim Rogers, the guru who has been able to predict the flight of the courts of the natural resources when they yearned still.

Interviewed late October by IndexUniverse, Jim Rogers said that "raw is the only placement with the market fundamentals are improving gradually."In the world of raw materials, his choice is clearly to products rather than actions: "In the 1970s, the price of crude oil have been multiplied by 10, while the titles of the extractive companies did nothing."Studies have shown, it continued, that, over several decades, "If you had invested directly in natural resources, you would have won 300 times more that building on the actions of this segment."Conclusion: the prospect of an ounce of gold to $ 2,000 and a barrel of oil at 150 or 200 dollars. And this without great consequence on the set of the real economy. These days, the reasoning of Jim Rogers made fly. Witness the evolution of the net investment flows to commodity-backed financial products. Since the net flow of October 2008, at the height of the credit crisis, this asset class more ceased to attract money.

All is not rosy

From Barclays Capital, the net flow of investments in natural resources established the month last to $ 2.2 billion. These net capital inflows are deemed "robust", by experts from the British investment bank.

Once, the beautiful part is the US mutual fund related indices of raw materials ($1.22 billion). For their part, economists of Natixis announced that in October the total amount of investments in major indices of raw materials could have exceeded $ 10 billion. For them, "investment on raw flows themselves are restated and have probably reached their highest level since the beginning of the year".

Yet all is not rosy in the universe of natural resources. Signs of subsidence of Chinese demand for metals and minerals appear here and there, complicit courts invariably focused on the rise and the end of the cycle of restocking on the part of local businesses. Main agricultural products, cereals in mind, the progression of courses recorded recently is know a rate comparable to that of mineral resources. Recently involved in an IndexUniverse Conference in New York, Nouriel Roubini is loaded to recall that the compartment of the raw too added and too fast. "The fundamentals are improving." "We are witnessing a global recovery", he conceded. This justifies that barrel of oil was $ 30-50 but not more. The $ 30 extra to reach approximately 80 current dollars, it is only demand fuelled by speculation, proclaims.

On this basis, the analogy with the summer black gold fever 2008 is easy to build. At the time, "when oil was at $ 145 per barrel, he killed the world economy." "I am afraid that its price is poised to climb again over 100 dollars for causes that have nothing to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand," said the professor. If that were the case, "it would the same negative effects on growth than barrel 145 $ for the summer 2008".

And Nouriel Roubini Associates not only the danger of the formation of a new bubble in black gold. Prices for the whole of the class of assets would be removed in the vortex. An opinion that deserves to be taken very seriously.