The new offer cannot compensate this deficit

Housing prices go to the increase in France for several months, marking the end of a period of mistrust. According to statistics of the notaries, they will fall by 8 in the former in 2009, but they had affected their level floor in the summer, not a collapse of the market such as the 1990s. After an increase of prices in the former by 130, nobody will touch this decline last year. But this correction was healthy and it is regrettable that it will not continue.

The market defied the Cassandras who anticipated reductions of 25 to 40. They are produced too expensive property or, on the contrary, ordinary housing in rural areas, away from road and rail routes. Fluctuations on quality assets were almost insignificant in large cities.

Is the decline in prices it finished Is it conducive to a resumption of the transactions Yes. The crucial lack of assets to sell there where there is a strong demand, which explains this strength of prices in the cities, stimulates increases now observed by estate agents. Candidates for the purchase had believed the prophecy of a masterful fall in values... In vain since, vendors preferred to keep their assets pending, also of better days. This disappearance of resales has led to a contraction of the volumes of transactions, fallen to 800,000 in 2007 at 550,000 last year. Sales thus declined from 15 to 25 depending on the region between 2008 and 2009, after a decline of 10 to 15 on 2007. Transactions have increased 12 over a year in the third quarter in Ile-de-France, with new expected in the last quarter. A market that was frozen demand calls for a resumption of the rise in prices, supported by the annual arrival of 320,000 new households on a park with a deficit of 900,000 dwellings.

The new offer cannot compensate this deficit. Dropping of 415.000 in September 2008 to 326.000 a year later, housing starts are insufficient to avoid a new rise in prices and facilitate transactions. Add to this observation of the construction costs that the official index shows temporarily down and who will be that back in view of the expected development of prices of raw materials and labor required for the application of Grenelle of the environment and the strengthening of the technical standards in the building.

At the beginning of 2010, the new housing stocks are exhausted. Developers who had frozen their projects and their negotiations for the purchase of lands were taken by surprise by the rebound of sales sparked apartments, 60 of their production, by the tax device Scellier. They must restart programs more quickly. Since a few months, the land prices increase and builders are a disturbing one-upmanship. Even the State contributes to the maintenance of high prices in the nine by granting investors to tax cuts, partially confiscated by marketing channels. For thirty years, for employment in the building, "défiscalisants" Ministers will still enabled the development of private rental Park abandoned over the years by the institutional.

Only good news in the landscape, credit conditions: the borrowing rate, today of 3.8 over 15 years, a point less than a year ago, restore household additional capacity for the purchase of their homes in the order of 12, which, accompanied by a longer for monthly payments of reimbursement, improves their solvency. Although the crisis and unemployment figures are not conducive to real estate commitment, banks, for which appropriations in stone are a tool of uptake of new customers, resumed the offensive.

The decrease in the prices of the past two years and proven lower interest rates are not miracle in terms of purchasing power. Households must also bear the costs related to housing: equipment, taxation... and telephony and computing spending... Many must therefore simply smaller housing, whose prices rise more, so that they no longer have the alternative of the remoteness of the inner cities, made more expensive by the rise of fuel prices. The master plan of Ile-de-France in approval evaluates 1.5 million additional housing needs to be met in the Ile-de-France region alone over the next twenty years in a park which has 5 million! It was built good years that 40,000 units when should be more than 70,000. Can remedy this situation by increasing significantly and urgent land surfaces, constrained by the rigidity of the rules of urban planning. Between the time of the choice of the place, of the acquisition of the land, the licence to build financial and construction, it takes five years! A despairing situation for the current generation.