As activists have good reason to be in the fog

After the Americans, the French Socialists Some 233.000 members of the PS are called tonight to tie six competing guidance texts a week before the Party Congress convened in Reims. The issue is not comparable with the US presidential and, yet, the tenors of the PS competed yesterday Barack Obama comparisons: incarnation of a "mixed America" which could "advance across the brotherhood" (Ségolène Royal), "a President that reminds of the role of the State and the political" (Martine Aubry), elected by citizens who "made the choice of change and renewal" (Benoît Hamon) and a Democrat who was able to remain "United and solidarity" (Jean-Marc Ayrault)(, support of Bertrand Delanoë). Recovery classic but symptomatic of a battle for control of the PS which has absorbed all the energy of its leaders for eight months.

In the fog

Being on the departure, the position of first Secretary Francois Hollande is to take. Part is especially contested and the financial crisis pushed everything. Last spring, the competition is committed by the right on the themes of the renovation and "realism". When the stock market world collapsed and the policies of any edge began to extol the virtues of the regulation, the leaders of the PS have revised their positioning (read below). Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry competed in the denunciation of financial capitalism, pushing the left of the PS to claim of copyright, while Bertrand Delanoë to bite the fingers to be once said "liberal."

The proposals included in the guidance texts written before the financial crisis less evolved that the adjectives used to enrobe them. As activists have good reason to be in the fog. More than on differences of background (subtle), it is likely that they distinguish three main competitors on their approach: the restoration of an "authority" at the head of the PS for Bertrand Delanoë. the opening of the party to the supporters for Ségolène Royal; or "exceeding the quarrels of the past" for Martine Aubry, supported by Laurent Fabius and strauss-kahniens.

Be with 4-5 points

The former majority of PS with exploded, the election of today looks particularly uncertain. Bertrand Delanoë and Ségolène Royal have therefore multiplied calls for the mobilization of activists these days. "A historic vote", for the first, which does not preclude the risk of "disappearance" of a PS that would not change. "This is the most uncertain and most difficult Conference since Branch in 1971." "If we rate 2008, it will miss 2012," insisted the second.

As none can be majority only, the challenge is to pre-empt others from 4 to 5 points. In this case, the Socialist leader arrived in mind may open without too many challenges the negotiations to form a majority. But the three main motions are found in a Pocket handkerchief and everything is possible. Sensing the danger, François Hollande has publicly pushed his ally Bertrand Delanoë to maintain his candidacy even if his advance is low. An idea yesterday challenged by Martine Aubry: "if it is just a little bit at the top, there is no legitimacy to say:"I am alone".". The Mayor of Lille does suddenly no alliance, even merits in Ségolène Royal. And the President of Poitou-Charentes appears in the same provision of mind when it loose: "the objective is to avoid the return to square one." Everything is possible, even the most unexpected.