40 he tested since the beginning of the week

Nothing seems to thwart the rise of the dollar. On the last 10 sessions, he floundered only once against the single currency. Yesterday, he has climbed to 1,3967 against euro, on rumours of sale of Lehman Brothers Bank of America, after having finally broken the threshold of 1.40 he tested since the beginning of the week. For some players, this movement defies logic. From a macroeconomic perspective first. "The dollar reacted more bad U.S. economic indicators", observes Carole Laulhère for Société Générale. The last monthly report on the employment and the 445.000 disclosed yesterday the unemployment registration are yet worrying signals for use in the United States. "Moreover, for fifteen days, the relationship between parity entering and the gap of the short rate between the two regions has disappeared", continues the strategist, who notes that the US Federal Reserve rate hike paris are mitigated since a month. Comments Axel Weber Wednesday and Lucas Papademos yesterday, both members of the European Central Bank, did not have more effect. They however ruled out the prospect of a recession in Germany as in Europe.

"There are signs of a materialization of the second-round effects," said Lucas Papademos, showing that the proposal institution is concerned about inflation. According to Barclays Capital, market grants a 40 probability to a relaxation of 2 basis points of European interest rates in March 2009.

Repatriation of capital

Finally, the difficulties which agitated the US financial sector these days have no more troubled the appreciation of the currency of the world's largest economy.

"The dollar's rise is explained essentially by repatriations of capital", said Michael Klawitter, in Dresdner. He argues that at the same time large losses are recorded by the emerging fellowships. In other words, operators are looking for active shelters. According to its estimates, US investment funds hold about 1,000 billion in foreign shares. This position confers a power on the currency changes their allocation.

This preference for dollar assets is powered by Moody news from other economies. Changes in monetary policy still accentuate the feeling of distrust. The New Zealand thus surprised by announcing a reduction of 50 money rent basis points.

Stabilization of the yuan

The team of Natixis moves another explanation. It considers that the judgment of the appreciation of the yuan, decided by the Chinese Government in the early summer to support certain industries, has been the recovery of the dollar. "This translates a supplement for the purchase of securities in the part of China, which leads to an increase in the dollar and a lower rates on loans of State long-term." According to Natixis, less 1 of the Chinese exchange rate appreciation leads to a depreciation of the euro against the dollar by 1.3.

In the end, the movement of the dollar's strength against the euro has taken such a scale that strategists are reluctant to play this trend. Positive with respect particularly help news outside the United States, could alter the situation. Especially if they come from China, which would mean that the demand for raw materials will be sustained and will outwit their courses.