They are five but one of them more concerned

Last month, at a Conference in Halifax, General Walter Natynczyk, Chief of the armed forces, caused a sensation. Yes, the Arctic is much threatened by conflict, even if the nature of the land does not lend itself to a conventional war, he said in substance A war for ice cap This question, yet incongruous three years ago, is at the heart of the strategic reflections on the security of the 21st century.

Why Because with the melting of ice, 40 faster that is anticipated in 2007 the Group of intergovernmental experts on the evolution of the climate, the North Pole could paint in dark blue, at least in summer period, as early as 2030. In 2008, the navigation is open for the first time since a million years for a month in the two shipping channels bypassing the polar ice. Along the coasts by the passage of the Northwest and offshore of Northeastern Siberia. Many experts are betting that the route of the North will be feasible by 2015! What amounts to a shortcut of 6,000 km between Asia and Europe, is a gain of about two weeks time!

A fabulous fishing reserve

Become navigable Arctic regorgerait also wealth. According to the U.S. Geological Service, 13 of the world's oil reserves unexplored and 30 of natural gas lie in these big funds! But, as a first step, the ice would open especially access to a fabulous fishing reserve, whereas overfishing may be correct last stocks of cod in the North Sea! Already, the Norwegian Polar Institute is a migration of this species to the North. "Since five years, we see less cod in the greater area of fishing of the Lofoten Islands, it must now go to the North," said the Norwegian Polar Institute Director, Jan-Gunnar Winther.

In these conditions, we understand why rim staffs get agitated. They are five, but one of them more concerned. On the one hand, the Norway, the United States by Alaska, the Canada and the Denmark by Greenland, about to gain independence, and on the other, the Russia, which claims seem exaggerated. Has not led to great media fanfare an underwater expedition, to file a copy in his national flag Platinum exactly at the pole North by 4,200 metres of bottom

Also if the General Walter Natynczyk imagine not "conventional military conflict", first because "the Arctic is a very hard environment difficult to practise". But he adds half sheets: "If someone notified to invade the Canadian Arctic, my first task would be to the rescue."Last November, US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, also spoke for stronger cooperation with the Canada in this region of the world "to ensure that the increasing activities of the Russia in the Arctic do not result of miscalculations or needless friction."

Because instead of the Antarctic, protected by an international convention such as Earth science and peace, the sea frozen Arctic (14 million square kilometres) is not placed under an international authority. Worse, according to the International Convention on the law of the sea, the coastal States may exercise their sovereignty over 200 miles off their Coast Marine, and even more if they can prove that their seabed are the indisputable extension of the continental shelf of 200 miles. On this basis, the Norway received a first extension of its territorial waters, while the Russia demands control of 37 of its frozen waters. If each State obtained satisfaction, 90 of this large as 30 times the France would, under territorial control, and there is more than 10 of high seas. France appointed Ambassador for the international negotiations relating to the Arctic pole and Antarctic in 2009, Michel Rocard argued for the negotiation of an international regime of precaution: "obviously, States dream of exploiting their future cash, but cannot open a space for fishing without setting in advance of the rules of the game, while specialists alert us risk an ocean without fish.", he says in "echoes". "Cannot not take risks of oil pollution in space also fragile, or open without some voluntary restraint navigation in this blank space."Spokesperson of a message of peace, internationalization and protection, supported by scientists, Michel Rocard negotiates on unknown and... slippery terrain. Because, without mention of oil reserves, the only opening of the road to the North will change the geopolitical situation. Stephen Carmel, Member of the management of the American owner Maersk Line, explains that by diverting the benefit a large part of freight traffic between Europe and Asia, Egypt could melt his main source of foreign currency, i.e. the Suez canal. Which produced "a factor of instability for Egypt and thus for the Middle East."

Still more competitive China

Another predictable consequence: the polar route render Chinese products even more competitive, particularly with American products. A future source of increased trade friction "What are these consequences on world trade that will really change the world, and possibly provoking conflict, not the fact for a few barrels of oil in the Arctic," predicted the shipowner. Michel Rocard, who has negotiated when he was Prime Minister with the Australian Prime Minister at the time the last under international supervision of the Antarctic, would like to at least get an international treaty for the protection of the Arctic securely monitored by the European Union. A mi-mot, the Ambassador (78 years) agrees that the part is far from over and that it will probably not the time to finish it.