Because the solution is not only military

Seven years after the terrorist attacks of 11 September, the Afghanistan is always at the centre of a great game between major powers and thousands of insurgents threatening to sink again the country, or even the entire region, in a frightening chaos. Distant echo of the fighting on the ground, yesterday in Paris, the National Assembly and the Senate have engaged in a heated debate followed a consultative vote on the presence in the country of French troops, more than a month after the death of 10 French soldiers fell about 50 kilometres from Kabul in an ambush. For the France, this debate on the military thing, made possible by the reform of the Constitution, is a way to exorcise the national tragedy triggered by the death of soldiers on a distant front.

But Afghan equation exceeds, obviously, very much the debate on the maintenance or non-French soldiers. The stakes are large scale for the security of the globe, including therefore the security of the France. Moscow there is indeed not err. Despite its tensions with NATO after the invasion of the Georgia, the Russia decided to respect his agreement with the Organization to pass to the Afghanistan of the transportation of supplies, with the exception of combat arms, for the Allied troops deployed in the country. Because clearly, the first data of this equation with the stability of a country which borders the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, the Iran, China. This is obviously the neighbouring Pakistan, a country with nuclear weapons, that is found in the front line. The Pakistani attack last Saturday in Islamabad, already described as "11 September", confirmed the risk of a return in force of Al-Qaida and networks associated with fundamentalists. This movement would it not be considered responsible for the attacks anti-American and numerous attacks in Europe, as in Madrid, London, in Tunisia or the Morocco But the two situations, Afghanistan and Pakistan, are related.

First installation of a pro-Western Government in Kabul after the overthrow of the Taliban regime, has not put an end to the porosity of the border, this famous Durand line, between the two Islamic republics. Any event in the first country has an immediate impact in the other. The West cannot afford nor a return in force of terrorist groups who had lived in the shadow of the Taliban until the fall of 2001, or the establishment of a State failed to Pakistan. But the equation is very complex. Because the solution is not only military. Far from it. On the ground in Afghanistan for the Western armies, the situation is almost inextricable. Any maintenance tends to embolden the rebellion in an asymmetrical conflict where an ambush is presented as a victory. But any precipitated departure of the Allied armies would add to the chaos and would at least give the semblance of a victory to Al-Qaida.

President Nicolas Sarkozy had also justified its decision by April NATO Bucharest Summit to strengthen the French presence in Afghanistan in holding that it was necessary to maintain the whole of the international system in this country. If the France was leaving, the Canada was similarly. And the Germany was in a difficult position. It is also true that the mandate of the international forces has changed. Simple maintenance of security in Kabul and in the area of the capital as provided in 2003 its initial mission agenda, the International Force for security assistance (ISAF), under the command of NATO, is now responsible for the "stabilisation" of the whole of the country and the reconstruction, or even the fight against drug trafficking. What is almost impossible mission.

From a simple digital point-of-view, international troops Coalition, from 40 different countries including 25 of the European Union, are now insufficient if one were to rely on the force. On the last digits of NATO, to September 1, 47.600 military including 2.670 French were deployed in this country under the ISAF flag. In this field, the allies are deadlocked. Because if the Taliban and Al-Qaida, cannot face the international forces with a real chance for decisive victory, the international forces fail to prevent attacks or suicide bombings. To prevent, it should be 300,000 to 600,000 military recently launched Jeremy Shapiro of the Brookings Institution, one of the "think tanks" of Washington. What is of course unthinkable, even if President George w. Bush has decided to reduce the US presence in Iraq to further strengthen in Afghanistan...

Remains the more political solution, which alone may open the way to an ordered departure of foreign troops in this country. It was the purpose of the Conference in Paris last June. Because the story is on this point provide a lesson. The British in the 19th century or the Soviets more closely we are able to settle in a sustainable manner. The solution, as reiterated it yesterday the Prime Minister, François Fillon, is "afghaniser" the armed forces in Afghanistan by assisting in the training of soldiers and Afghan police officers. On the first point, the coalition has had some success. The Afghan army is little by little and a French diplomat, the desertion rate is about 10. What is considered as relatively low. In contrast, the formation of an Afghan police is a much more distant objective. This device is still based on the presence of a true afghan Government. President Hamid Karzai, put in place after the overthrow of the Taliban, is well still the man for the job It is not clear. There may be the last card to play: one to negotiate with the Taliban, at least with the more "moderate" of them. And to keep pressure on any future regime who could get such a compromise, the major powers could any assistance for the reconstruction of this country, ravaged by more than a quarter of a century of wars, in respect of a number of rights especially of women's rights. For seven years, all observers have noted a positive development with the return in the schools of young girls or progress in health. This political solution obviously requires the abandonment of the original objective of the 2001 us: to establish a genuine democracy in Afghanistan. Abandonment is an admission of powerlessness. But he seemed to be already well illusory for a long time. Seven years after the terrorist attacks, the Afghan equation is far from resolved. But it will in any case not be solely by the force of arms.