2 revised upward growth the previous month

Session mixed on the markets after the publication of a volley of us statistics. According figures published yesterday, the personal incomes of us households increased by 0.5 in September, which corresponds to their stronger growth for 3 months, and is higher than the forecast. At the same time, consumption has risen from 0.1, after a 0.2 (revised upward) growth the previous month.

Moreover, inflation appears to slow in the United States. The figures published yesterday a index flagship of the "déflateur" of consumption, which measure the price for the household effect, thus grew by 2 in September (annual rate) 3.2 the previous month, and 3 expected. The "deflator" excluding food and energy, one of the most followed clues by the US Federal Reserve, a, on the other hand, increased by 0.2 in September about one month, as expected.

In this context, the prospect of a rise or a decrease in rates by the Fed moves away, for the benefit of an extended status quo. In the late afternoon, us long rates remained unchanged, while the dollar increased very slightly against the euro, which however remained above 1.27 dollar bar (to 1,2716 against 1,2732 on the eve of the weekend).

However, the greenback continued to decline against the yen, 117,38 yen ( 0.18 Friday evening). Which corresponds to its lowest level since early October against the Japanese currency. The reasons for the rise of the yen

Beyond the sliding dollar, observed in the last days on monetary status quo Fund in the United States, the Japanese currency was supported by expectations of monetary tightening in the Japan.

Expectations of rate increases

While the Bank of Japan meets today, operators do certainly not expect the announcement of an increase in its rate in the day. But all eyes will be on the semi-annual diagnosis of the institution and the comments of its Governor Toshihiko Fukui to the outcome of the meeting of the monetary policy Committee. According to the newspaper "Yomiuri", the Japanese Central Bank should revise upwards its growth forecasts. That would open the door to other rate increases. In July, it put an end to more than five years of zero interest rate policy under the rent of money from a quarter of a point.

"We expect a new rise in rates before the end of the year," said Tom Levinson, an economist at ING. Economic activity is strong and the country is finally out of deflation, according to him. According the statistics published yesterday, the growth of Japanese industrial production slightly decelerated in September, to 5.8. "However, the manufacturing activity remains on the highest since August 2004, supported by foreign demand", said Sophie Mametz, an economist at Ixis. A series of other economic data should be published today, the unemployment figures. They should "confirm that the growth will be further supported by foreign demand, and to a lesser extent, by private consumption", said Sophie Mametz.

In this context, the Japanese currency could move forward, and even in a brutal manner, if institutional investors began to reverse their strategy of "carry trade", warn analysts. Rather this speculative practice of borrowing in countries where interest rates are low, to invest here where they are high, weighed on the yen so far, but the mechanics could be reversed.