I would be not concerned if we were a further retreat of the euro

I would be not concerned if we were a further retreat of the euro. This decline, in part, lead to a welcome addition of external demand for the euro area. "The Chief Economist of the Organization for cooperation and development (OECD), Pier Carlo Padoan, yesterday in Paris proved to be much more concerned of the turmoil on the markets of the debts of the States of the withdrawal of the single currency. Commenting on the new growth forecasts for member countries, it considered indeed that the weakening of the euro offset the short-term negative effects of austerity plans put in place gradually in the euro area. It should even allow the 16 countries share the same currency to avoid a new recession, according to the Chief Economist of the organization. And this decline is all the more welcome that the global economic recovery is accompanied by a return of the global imbalances of trade.

For the current year, the gross domestic product (GDP) of OECD countries should indeed increase by 2.7 and 2.8 in 2011. Numbers increase from the previous forecast, November 2009, which were respectively 1.9 for 2010 and 2.5 for 2011. But the dynamism will come more emerging countries, in the first place, and the United States, second place, than to Europe, where the euro is credited of 1.2 and 1.8 growth respectively (see above).

Necessary fiscal union

In view of considerable debt in many OECD countries, Europe and Japan and head, it is necessary to terminate, at the latest in 2011, the exceptional budgetary measures taken to combat a crisis far from over. For the Organization, the "fundamental weakness" of the euro area remain even if the European Central Bank and the Governments, taking to stigmata problems, helped calm investors. Structural adjustment programmes should be implemented, because only the effects of advertisements will not suffice to ensure the credibility of remediation strategies. The debt crisis requires a consolidation of its institutional and operational architecture for the euro area, to dispel doubts about the sustainability of the monetary union. In this regard, it would be desirable that the monitoring of national policies be strengthened, taking into account the broader considerations of competitiveness. Measures to increase tax revenue, when necessary, will have to focus on the instruments that affect growth, such as taxes less consumption and the carbon tax. In the end, the euro area must give birth "in fiscal Union", argued Pier Carlo Padoan.

Risk of overheating in China

Elsewhere, the overheating of the emerging economies also presents serious risks. A scenario of "boom" followed "bankruptcy" is not to exclude, requiring a much more marked tightening of monetary policies in some countries such as China and the India, to counter inflationary pressures and reduce the risk of bubble markets. The flexibility of exchange rates would mitigate some of the pressures on China's monetary policy and contain domestic inflation.

As pointed out by the OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurria, "it is a critical moment for the world economy." "Coordinated international efforts helped to prevent a severe recession, but we remain confronted with enormous challenges." ... "We need more that never maintain cooperation at an international level", he added.